An Overview of the Currency and commodity Markets-from my trading desk

Platinum Trading blogs

PLATINUM TRADING BLOGS

This week’s data is virtually all focused on the USD with a little bit thrown in for the GBP and the AUD.  There is also a great deal of Central bank activity. Platinum trading blogs gives all the detailed updates, read in detail below:

USD: The US$ Index fell meaningfully on the week.
A very busy week.
We start on Tuesday when we have both Core Retail sales and Retail Sales. The former excludes car sales and is anticipated to fall from last month’s 0.1% to -0.2%. Retail Sales is also expected to fall from 0.2% to -0.1%. We also have PPI which is thought to be -0.1% from last month’s 0.1%.
Wednesday is a very busy day. We have both Core CPI and CPI. The former excludes food and energy and is expected to fall from 0.3% to 0.1% whilst CPI is anticipated to move from 0.0% to -0.2%. We also have Building Permits estimated to remain unchanged at 1.20m. Finally the Crude Oil Inventory number which will give short term direction to crude.
The figures are eclipsed by the FED. We have the FOMC Economic Projections, the FOMC Statement, the FED Funds rate expected to remain unchanged at 0.50% and finally the FOMC Press Conference.
On Thursday we have the FED Manufacturing Index and the usual Unemployment Claims figure guesstimated to be 267,000.
The week ends on Friday with Consumer Sentiment which is expected to rise from 91.7 to 92.3.

EURO: The EURO rose strongly against the USD last week.
There is absolutely no economic data of note for the EURO this week.

GBP: The GBP rose meaningfully against the USD last week.
A reasonable amount of data for the GBP.
On Wednesday we have Average Earnings Index which is expected to rise from 1.9% to 2.0%.
This is followed by the Claimant Count Change which is expected to decrease by 9,000 after last month’s fall of 14,000.
Finally we have the Annual Budget Release.
On Thursday we have the MPC Official bank rate Votes expected to remain steady at 0-0-9 meaning that all members vote for no change in interest rates.

YEN: Whilst the YEN had a volatile week against the USD it closed the week virtually unchanged.
Three items for the YEN all of which are BOJ driven.
On Monday we have the Monetary Policy Statement.
On Tuesday we have the BOJ Press Conference.
Finally on Thursday we have the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.

AUD: The AUD rose meaningfully against the USD last week.
A reasonable amount of data for the AUD.
On Monday we have the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.
On Wednesday we have two items Both of which are important. Firstly we have the Employment Change number which is expected to rise by 12,300 from last month’s fall 0f 7,900. This is followed by the Unemployment rate which is expected to remain unchanged at 6.0%.

CNY: There is no data for the CNY this week.

THOUGHTS FOR NEXT WEEK AT Platinum FOREX TRADING BLOGS
I continue to believe that crude is the main driver of risk at this stage. the recent crude rally is due for a consolidation/short term correction and envisage the low 30’s being re-visited over the next few weeks prior to a resumption of the rally to the mid 40’s by the middle of the year.

This will adversely affect risk as measured by the SP500 at least in the short term.

Gold is looking heavy, heavy to the extent that a good sized fall of $100-150 fall is a definite possibility in the short term.

The US30 year bond remains a sell.

Have a beautiful week and keep reading more Platinum Trading Blogs and updates at Platinum Trading Academy.

Nisha Patel